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UFC Predictions 5 Juicy Long-Shot Prop Picks for UFC Vegas 90 (Saturday, April 6)

Updated:2024-05-04 03:18    Views:112

Check out our UFC Vegas 90 predictions with our top prop bets from the MMA Prop Squad for Saturday, April 6.

UFC Vegas 90 takes place Saturday afternoon at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire 12-fight event streams on ESPN+ with an early start time of 3 p.m. ET (noon PT). Main-card action kicks off at 6 p.m. ET.

Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of UFC predictions from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +14.0 units and a +3.9% ROI per bet to date.

As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.

*Matchup odds as Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 90 with our FanDuel promo code.

UFC Predictions – MMA Prop Squad Picks

Billy Ward: Nora Cornolle by KO (+1100)

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:05 p.m. ET

Nora Cornolle (+310) looks like she’ll close as the biggest underdog on Saturday's night. The 7-1 Frenchwoman is taking on undefeated Mellissa Mullins (-390) in the card’s opening contest.

I’m having a hard time understanding why this line is so long. Cornolle has the more extensive combat sports background. She climbed as high as No. 2 in the world muay Thai rankings for her weight class, and her only professional MMA loss was via decision in her pro debut – against a fellow future UFC fighter.

Her resume since then is every bit as impressive as Mullins’ with six finishes in her seven wins. Mullins has just three finishes as a pro, and she showed some flaws in her UFC debut.

UFC Vegas 90 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Allen vs Curtis, Walker vs Brzeski & MoreRead now

She was knocked down early in her fight against the grappling-focused Irinia Alekseeva, and taken down late in that fight. Mullins used her far-superior ground skills to control most of the fight, but she won’t be gifted a free trip to the canvas from the striking specialist Cornolle.

So that’s the case for Cornolle to win. But why knockout? The biggest reason is Mullins’ knockdown by Alekseeva. I expect knockdowns to turn into knockouts in the long run. Jumpier referees may have stopped that fight, and more composed opponents would’ve finished it.

I’m taking a bet on Cornolle’s moneyline, as well, while taking a sprinkle on her knockout prop.

The Prediction: Nora Cornolle by KO (+1100 at DraftKings)

Clint MacLean: Cesar Almeida by Round 2/3 KO (+850)

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET

Cesar Almeida is not Alex Pereira. However, the UFC is giving him the same career path.

On Contender Series, Almeida was tested by a Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and passed with flying colors.

On Saturday at UFC Vegas 90, Almeida (+124) will face a young wrestler in middleweight Dylan Budka (-146), who is coming in on short notice and will be at a massive striking disadvantage.

I fully expect Almeida to have a tough Round 1. However, as soon as Budka slows a bit, Almeida will be able to strike freely, and then I expect him to find a finish.

We're going to go with the Round 2/3 KO prop, which FanDuel has listed under its "KO/TKO Round Combos" submenu for the fight.

The Prediction: Cesar Almeida by KO in Rounds 2 or 3 (+850 at FanDuel)

Bet Almeida by R2/R3 KO (+850) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!Tony Sartori: Victor Hugo by KO (+550)

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC prelims feature a bantamweight bout between Pedro Falcao (+120) and Victor Hugo (-142). These two Brazilians both make the walk on a UFC card for the first time after earning looks via Contender Series after finishing their respective opponents (Falcao did not earn a contract at first, but he got the call on short notice after Hugo's first opponent withdrew).

Hugo is the bigger prospect, both literally and physically. He carries a one-inch height and five-inch reach advantage, which will bode well in the striking department.

The reason this number is so long is that Falcao has never been finished aside from an injury, but I would counter that with the fact that he has never faced someone on Hugo's level prior to Saturday.

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Hugo is going to be able to use that size advantage to pick his shots and work Falcao down as the fight carries on, but ultimately the power may end up being too much as a third of Hugo's professional wins have come by KO/TKO.

Whenever you have a size discrepancy as we will see in this fight, you want to nullify that by taking the fight to the mat, which I believe will be Falcao's game plan. However, Hugo is also very comfortable in that department, so I think he will survive those exchanges even if Falcao lands some takedowns.

At +550, I think it's worth a flyer that Hugo utilizes the size advantage to work Falcao down as the fight progresses and ultimately gets a TKO finish.

The Prediction:Victor Hugo by KO (+550 at FanDuel)

Bet Hugo by KO Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!Dan Tom: Ignacio Bahamondes in Round 2 (+470), in Round 3 (+650)

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some "hot rounds" in a main card attraction between Ignacio Bahamondes (-330) and Christos Giagos (+265).

Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.

In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect gas tanks vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.

In this case, Giagos is the fighter who has all the tools to give his opposition hell early.

However, if Giagos is unable to put away his opponent, we've seen him hit a hard wall at the seven-minute mark, time and time again.

For that reason, I'll be picking Bahamondes to find a finish by Round 3.

I don't like the high price tag on Bahamondes' moneyline, so I'll be splitting up my play on his late-round props for plus money instead.

The Predictions: Christos Bahamondes in Round 2 (+470 at FanDuel) | Bahamondes in Round 3 (+650 at FanDuel)

Bet Bahamondes in Round 2 (+470) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!Bet Bahamondes in Round 3 (+650) Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!





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