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UFC 292 Props 7 Long-Shot MMA Prop Squad Picks (Saturday, August 19)

Updated:2024-05-03 15:06    Views:171

Welcome to the latest edition of MMA Prop Squad, in which we offer an array of UFC 292 prop bets with oversized odds for Saturday's pay-per-view event.

Each Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +17.1 units and a +7.5% ROI per bet since launch.

This week marks the return of squad members Dann Stupp, Tony Sartori, Billy Ward, Clint MacLean, Bryan Fonseca, Liam Heslin and Dan Tom.

Check out their picks for Saturday's event, which streams on ESPN+ PPV (10 p.m. ET) for the main card following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPN (8 p.m. ET), below.

As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.

Dann Stupp: Chris Weidman via decision (+500)

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET

In a featured prelim clash for us old heads, Chris Weidman returns from a two-year layoff following a broken leg he suffered in a 2021 loss to Uriah Hall.

The former middleweight champion, whose title reign lasted from 2013-2015, faces Brad Tavares, who first entered the UFC scene nearly 14 years ago.

Yes, these vets have been around the block a few times.

It's hard to know what form we'll get from Weidman after his recovery and layoff, but I'm confident he wouldn't rush back to the cage if his health were still comprised in a significant way.

UFC 292 Best Bets: Our Expert Picks for Weili vs. Lemos, Vera vs. Munhoz, MoreRead now

Still, as a fellow member of the Broken Leg Club ('89), I know there's always going to be a bit of hesitation in the back of his mind, especially in his first fight since the ill-timed snap in 2021.

I believe that gives Weidman even more reason to seek out a takedown. Why stand and trade with Tavares, who has every right and reason to attack that leg with kicks, and not exploit your big ground advantage?

That won't be easy against a crafty vet in Tavares, but Weidman likely needs only a few key takedowns to build up some control time, do some damage on the mat, and hopefully win at least two of three rounds en route to a decision victory.

So, in addition to making a small straight moneyline play on Weidman (+227), I think we're getting some very attractive odds for Weidman to win via decision (+500). And those odds are still widely available at a number of top sportsbooks.

The Pick: Chris Weidman via decision (+500 at Bet365)

Tony Sartori: Da'Mon Blackshear by Submission (+700)

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET

At UFC 292, Da'Mon Blackshear takes on Mario Bautista in a bantamweight bout on the main card.

Blackshear looks to make UFC history. He would have the quickest successful turnaround if he goes on to win in back-to-back weeks. Stepping in on short notice, Blackshear looks to build upon his stellar submission victory over Jose Johnson last week when he pulled off the ever-rare twister.

A tremendous wrestler with an incredible knack for finding submissions, Blackshear will look to either stay in the clinch or shoot for takedowns. However, given Bautista's pedigree, Blackshear's most likely avenue to victory is a finish inside the distance.

Bautista is a monumental step up in terms of ability compared to Johnson, and I do not think Blackshear is on his level. With that said, Blackshear is coming into this fight with all the confidence in the world after last week's performance, and I do not think it is out of the question that he pulls off the upset.

If he is to do so, then the most likely avenue in my opinion is that he secures another submission. Both guys prefer to grapple, and both are extremely good at doing so.

We are likely going to see a ton of exchanges and reversals on the mat, so at 7-1, I will gladly take a shot on Blackshear to lock in a submission during the chaos. Nine of Blackshear's 14 professional wins have come via submissions while Bautista's first loss in the UFC came via armbar against Cory Sandhagen.

Betway has an industry-best +700 line, but FanDuel's +500 for Blackshear via submission is also playable.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear via submission (+700 at Betway)

Billy Ward: Neil Magny by Decision (+700)

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

When the UFC 292 card was announced, Ian Garry was set to face Geoff Neal. That fight saw Garry lined at around -175 before a Neal injury forced him off the card. With Neil Magny in as a replacement, Garry鈥檚 line has ballooned all the way up to -500 or so.

That feels off to me, especially considering Magny holds a victory over Neal less than two years ago. While the short-notice nature of the booking has something to do with it, it doesn鈥檛 explain that big of a gap.

Besides, this is a drastically different opponent for Garry. Magny is 6-foot-3 with an 80-inch reach, an awkward opponent for a fighter like Garry who typically has a height and reach edge on most welterweights (including Neal).

All of which has me leaning toward the veteran Magny, who has made a career out of sending surging prospects back down the rankings. That鈥檚 exactly what he did to Neal when they fought; Neal was on a seven-fight winning streak at the time.

Magny probably doesn鈥檛 have the power or the willingness to engage in a slugfest to finish Garry on the feet. While he鈥檚 a capable submission artist, Garry is a judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, so a submission seems fairly unlikely as well.

However, Magny scoring at range on the feet while mixing in some takedowns and top control? That鈥檚 not as hard to picture.

Garry has been taken down in three of his five UFC fights despite relatively friendly bookings that have seen him avoid anyone with Magny鈥檚 grappling acumen.

I鈥檓 looking at other ways to profit from the concept of this fight being closer than it appears 鈥?including Magny鈥檚 +3.5 spread or the over 1.5/2.5 round props. Getting Magny by decision as well would be icing on the cake.

The Pick: Neil Magny via decision (+700 at Betway)

Clint MacLean: Ian Garry by Submission (+550)

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:55 p.m. ET

Ian Garry is an absolute stud. This kid is a complete package at just 25, and at at UFC 292, he is facing an aging veteran in Neil Magny, who is effectively operating as the division鈥檚 gatekeeper.

What we have seen from Magny is a terrific gas tank combined with toughness, but he really struggles when his opponents are more physical than he is and have better grappling.

We have really been shown only the striking of Garry so far in his UFC run, and that alone should be enough to beat Magny on Saturday. I think Garry is looking to show off a little, though.

We have yet to see his grappling chops, and Mangy has been submitted six times in his professional career. Garry actually has dangerous front chokes in his arsenal and just hasn't had the opportunity to use them.

Magny, who pushes grappling and will present his neck when he is damaged but is extremely difficult to actually finish via strikes, is the perfect opportunity for Garry to club and sub his opponent.

The Pick: Ian Garry by submission (+550 at DraftKings)

Bryan Fonseca: Amanda Lemos via Rounds 1-3 KO (+700)

Contributor at The Action Network and聽combat sports host and on-air talent

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

I think people are forgetting that Zhang Weili was knocked out by a head kick two years ago against Rose Namajunas.

She's a deserved favorite, and even -320 on FanDuel is something I think is earned, but she's not unbeatable.

And, if someone is going to beat her at this stage, Amanda Lemos possesses some of the tools to make the seemingly improbable probable.

Weili is 23-3 with 11 knockouts and will likely try to ground Lemos because of her jiu-jitsu advantage, and she has six submissions to Lemos' three.

Lemos, who is 13-2-1, also has eight knockouts. She's coming off two impressive 2022 victories against Marina Rodriguez (TKO) and Michelle Waterson (submission), both of whom she defeated inside of three full rounds.

Lemos has been knocked out once and was submitted by Jessica Andrade in April 2022. That's why these are long odds. However, Lemos, who has a two-inch reach advantage, has the power to change a fight, especially in the strawweight division.

Look for her to jab and try landing an overhand right from the outside, possibly a straight right followed by a left hook as Weili lunges in. And if she hits cleanly, this could be dangerous for the champ.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos by KO in Rounds 1-3 (+700 at FanDuel)

Pick: Amanda Lemos by KO in Rounds 1-3 (+700)Bet Lemos instantly at FanDuel via QuickSlip!

Liam Heslin: Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos Ends by Submission (+370)

Contributor at The Action Network and host of聽Liam Picks Fights

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:25 p.m. ET

Zhang Weili showed off improved grappling (recently promoted to BJJ brown belt) in her last fight by submitting a stiff challenge in Carla Esparza, one of the most accomplished wrestlers in the history of the strawweight division.

The challenger in this bout is Amanda Lemos, a heavy-handed Brazilian woman who has been on both sides of the submission equation in her UFC run.

Despite submitting Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Miranda Granger in impressive fashion, Lemos was easily dispatched via standing arm-triangle choke in Round 1 by Jessica Andrade in April 2022.

Fundamentally, this line is mispriced. The fight is priced to end inside the distance more than 78% of the time (-361 market average), yet the fight to end via submission is assigned a 21.3% implied win probability (+370).

Many sharp sportsbooks are offering lower odds on Zhang via submission than WynnBET is offering on the "fight ends via submiddion" prop. Act fast if you want these prices, though.

The numbers have been dropping precipitously. FanDuel opened +420 early in the week, and they鈥檝e dropped to +320 at time of writing. Value is gone at +300.

This fight has club-and-sub potential, and both women attempt 0.3 or more submissions per 15 minutes of cage time. Instead of laying heavy chalk on Weili or the fight to end inside the distance, you can root for anyone to finish the fight via submission.

The Pick: Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos ends via submission (+370 at WynnBET)

Dan Tom: Aljamain Sterling in Round 2 (+700)

Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET

For this week's Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a round flier in UFC 292's main attraction between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley.

Even before hearing Sterling recently state in a pre-fight interview that he planned to finish O'Malley in Round 2, my analysis already had me heading in that direction with my wallet.

Although O'Malley is a much more skilled grappler than his haters give him credit for, his propensity to expose his back in transition will likely earn Sterling some riding time in this fight.

Sterling will likely need to spend the first round figuring out how to penetrate and wear down O'Malley's defenses, which makes Round 2 the proverbial "hot round" for finishes in this fight.

I'm already on Sterling to win by submission, but I also sprinkled on Sterling to win in Round 2 in case he decides to just sell out with strikes from a rear mount position.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling in Round 2 (+700)

Pick: Aljamain Sterling in Round 2 (+700)Bet Sterling instantly at FanDuel via QuickSlip!

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